The profit of basic chemical industry will gradual

2022-07-31
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In the second half of the year, the profits of the basic chemical industry will gradually pick up.

in the first half of the year, the prices of many chemical products were depressed, and the poor performance expectation made this sector underperform the market. However, analysts pointed out that with the gradual emergence of the effects of the government's policies to stimulate domestic demand and the improvement of the international economic situation, the profits of the basic chemical industry will gradually recover in the second half of the year. It is suggested to pay attention to the sub industries such as soda ash, chlor alkali, silicone and modified plastics that benefit from the recovery of real estate and automobiles, as well as the sub industries of pesticides and fertilizers that benefit from policy support and are booming

the industry is expected to stabilize and rebound

at present, the domestic economy is recovering, and the sales of real estate, automobile and other industries have rebounded significantly, which will certainly drive the demand for upstream chemicals. China Merchants Securities analysts pointed out that in the first half of the year, the price of basic chemical products stabilized or rebounded, and the number of varieties began to increase; At the same time, the current prices of soda ash, acetic acid, PVC and other products are close to the industry cost, which should be the bottom of the price, which means that the basic chemical industry basically achieved bottom stabilization in the second quarter, and the prosperity will rebound significantly in the second half of the year. In addition, with the gradual stabilization of the global economic fundamentals, the oil price is expected to continue to rebound in the second half of the year, thus pushing up the prices of other basic chemical products

in terms of valuation, industrial securities analysts took 55 core companies in the basic chemical industry as samples and calculated the average valuation level of the chemical industry over the years since 2001 and the premium rate relative to the CSI 300 index in accordance with the TTM method. The results show that the PE and Pb of the chemical industry at the current time point are at the middle level in the past 8 years, but the valuation premium rate is at a historically low level. In the third quarter, the downstream demand will be periodically transmitted to the chemical industry, and the product price and profit will rebound, resulting in a double recovery of profit expectation and valuation. However, analysts warned that due to the rapid expansion of production capacity in the past few years, overcapacity in the chemical industry is common. Under this background, the future recovery of the chemical industry may be based on gradual and band style

the release of future real demand will become an important factor in the rise and fall of the price of basic chemical products. Therefore, in terms of investment strategy, we can base on the downstream demand, pay attention to the investment opportunities of sub industries with relatively stable demand or improvement to make the profit trend better, such as soda ash, chlor alkali, organosilicon, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, etc

recovery of "real estate" and "automobile" and recovery of chlor alkali

since the beginning of this year, the real estate industry has recovered strongly, the start-up investment has been comprehensively accelerated, and the automobile sales have also improved significantly, which will improve the demand for relevant chemical products, such as PVC, soda ash, silicone, modified plastics, etc

soda ash is one of the most important and basic chemical raw materials, and the glass industry has the largest demand for it. Analysts believe that with the recovery of macro-economy, the real estate construction area and automobile production and sales volume have rebounded significantly, which will drive the glass industry. However, at this time, the glass production will pick up, which is expected to gradually drive the soda industry out of the trough. At present, the price of soda ash is still around the cost and is expected to rebound in the second half of the year. At present, it is a good choice to invest in the soda ash industry at the bottom stage

for the chlor alkali sub industry, Changjiang Securities believes that its profit margin and operating rate in 2009 will depend on the overall economic situation. In the future, the gradual recovery of infrastructure construction, real estate and other industries is expected to drive the demand of chlor alkali industry. At the same time, the PVC industry integration will also be accelerated. Leading enterprises with resource advantages, scale advantages and adopting circular economy process will benefit from the industry integration and continue to expand market share. Analysts suggested that we should pay attention to those devices with resource and cost advantages and significant scale effect, which can effectively limit spinal movement and achieve intervertebral disc compression. Therefore, I found a large box to collect those things from decompression companies, such as Xinjiang Tianye and Zhongtai chemical

in addition, the modified plastics mainly used in auto parts will benefit from the recovery of the auto industry. Changjiang Securities analysts predict that the total demand for modified plastics in the market will continue to grow by more than 10% in the next few years, and is expected to reach 7million tons in 2010. Jinfa technology, the domestic leader of modified plastics, has a very obvious leading advantage in core technology and services

the recovery of the construction area of downstream real estate and the booming production and sales of automobiles will also promote the future rise of DMC price in silicone. Among the silicone enterprises, Xin'an Co., Ltd., which relies on the unique recycling process to take the lead in the integration of upstream and downstream, is generally optimistic

the prosperity of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is improving

affected by the de stocking of domestic and foreign dealers and farmers and the expected decline in product prices, the domestic and foreign demand for chemical fertilizers and pesticides was relatively flat in the first half of 2009, and the product prices fell step by step in the second quarter. Analysts from Industrial Securities pointed out that as the demand for agricultural products is rigid, the digestion of inventory has lagged behind for some time, and the demand for domestic and foreign fertilizers and pesticides or the tortuous auxiliary parts recommended by manufacturers will resume growth, which will be more obvious in foreign demand

after the adjustment of fertilizer export tariff in November 2008 and June 2009, the export tariff of main fertilizer products in the off-season has been reduced to 10%. Under the background that the rising prices of agricultural products and natural gas raise the cost of foreign nitrogen fertilizer, the off-season export situation of domestic nitrogen fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer is expected to turn for the better. Changjiang Securities analysts believe that the demand for nitrogen fertilizer is the most rigid. Hualu Hengsheng, Hubei Yihua and Jianfeng Chemical are optimistic about the cost and technical advantages; The future prosperity recovery of phosphate fertilizer depends on the progress of de capacity; The scarcity of potash resources determines that potash is still in the boom stage

in terms of pesticides, there is little room for glyphosate prices to continue to fall. After the improvement of environmental protection standards in the future is expected to eliminate a number of production capacity, the industry development and profitability will return to rationality, and leading enterprises will enjoy considerable profits. Analysts from China Merchants Securities pointed out that China's pesticide industry will continue to deepen the substitution of highly toxic pesticides, and the entry threshold of the industry is also rising, which will make the pesticide industry face the opportunity of adjustment and optimization. Changjiang Securities analysts also pointed out that at present, China's pesticide industry has formed a relatively complete industrial chain system, which has greatly reduced production costs and narrowed the gap between production technology and foreign advanced technology. It is suggested to focus on Yangnong chemical, Xin'an shares, Huaxing Chemical, red sun, Lear chemical, nopuxin, etc

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