How can the most hot coal and electricity be turne

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At the end of July, the national development and Reform Commission, the national energy administration and other 16 ministries and commissions jointly issued the "opinions on promoting supply side structural reform to prevent and resolve the risk of overcapacity in coal-fired power" (hereinafter referred to as the "opinions"), which clearly put forward the goals and specific measures of "de capacity" and structural adjustment of coal-fired power during the 13th Five Year Plan period, and strive to control the installed scale of coal-fired power within 1.1 billion kw by 2020

one touch will affect the whole body

since the last round of power system reform in 2002, but Mr. Bai has a bad habit system, China's power generation construction has made rapid progress, in which coal-fired power plays a leading role, increasing from 250 million kW in 2002 to 940 million KW at the end of 2016, with an average annual growth of 9.9%. The average annual installed capacity of coal-fired power is nearly 50million kW, which is characterized by the demand driven by rapid economic growth and simple operation, There are also blind optimism generated by the misjudgment of the development situation, as well as the helpless actions made by local governments to ensure economic growth

in fact, the signs of excess coal power have already appeared. Now the "opinions" has been issued, and the wind direction has finally been reversed. During the "13th five year plan" period, 170million kW of construction has been suspended, postponed and eliminated, which is equivalent to a reduction of more than 30million kW of installed capacity every year. The "13th five year plan" has passed for more than a year and a half. In the remaining time, the average annual "de capacity" is nearly 50million kW. The pressure is not small, and the loss is not small

from an economic point of view, according to the current project cost level, the total investment involved in the 150 million KW coal-fired power installation suspended or postponed is about 500 billion yuan. Once the project under construction is stopped, it will inevitably face a series of quality and safety problems, such as the settlement of the foundation bearing layer caused by the long-term exposed ponding around the proposed site and the foundation, the damage of the concrete structure caused by the corrosion and expansion of reinforcement, and the corrosion of system equipment, which will add a lot of additional facilities, equipment protection costs and financial costs. In addition, the change of project schedule caused by policy changes will inevitably lead to a series of engineering changes, contract disputes and even claims

from the perspective of industry, coal power construction is a system engineering, which involves not only upstream equipment manufacturing, but also supporting coal transportation channels, power construction and downstream industrial layout. A few years ago, the rapid expansion of coal-fired power installed capacity has led to the production of a large number of upstream equipment manufacturing enterprises. Now the scale of coal-fired power construction has been reduced and the pace has slowed down, which is bound to lead to difficulties in the operation of some equipment manufacturing enterprises. In recent years, China has successively started to build 14 UHV transmission channels, and many coal power projects under construction are supporting power sources. If these projects are suspended or delayed, and the supporting UHV lines are insufficient, it will cause the idleness and waste of state-owned assets to a certain extent

from a social perspective, the construction and operation of coal-fired power projects require a lot of labor. In order to meet the needs of the power construction market in previous years, the construction capacity of power construction enterprises has expanded rapidly since 2002, with sufficient reserves of technicians and mechanical equipment, and a large number of migrant workers have formed on-site construction teams. After the shutdown and postponement of coal power projects, not only the operation and survival of power construction enterprises will be challenged, but also a large number of personnel and professional equipment serving coal power construction projects will be idle. China Power Construction (601669, Guba) and China energy construction group alone will face more than 20000 transferred employees. At the same time, since 2007, a total of more than 100million kW of small thermal power units have been shut down. Most of the remaining small thermal power units to be shut down are cogeneration units or located in remote areas. There are widespread problems of large number of employees and difficult diversion and resettlement

both the government and enterprises should "play the game"

in the face of such a chain reaction that touches the whole body, is the coal-fired power unit a thing that has been shut down? The current situation has taken shape, and "de capacity" is really a last resort, but what must be done at the same time of "de capacity" is to summarize, reflect and prevent, and avoid paying tuition fees on the same subjects again and again

the coal and electricity industry is heavily loaded. To a certain extent, it is rooted in the thinking of planned economy. Whether it is approval or "the investment will significantly improve the supply guarantee ability of the real market for global customers", it is a typical means of planned economy. Even the current shutdown and transfer measures still have obvious traces of planned economy

planning means not only cause the rigidity of management and disconnection from the market, but also mislead the market players. Even if the installed capacity of coal-fired power is seriously surplus, due to the strict approval of the competent department, the "roadways" resources have been artificially hyped into scarce resources, which has attracted enterprises to flock. Just imagine, if the policy is stable, and the market and industry information is timely and complete, as long as the projects that meet the planning, environmental protection and other conditions can be constructed and combined with power generation, which enterprise will frantically obtain the "road strip" of coal-fired power projects? Artificial intervention distorts the judgment and decision-making behavior of market subjects

out of the blind pursuit of economic growth, local governments acquiesce and even encourage the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises. The absence of punishment mechanism for relevant people connives at this irrational decision-making of local governments. In order to promote the implementation of scientific, democratic and legal decision-making by administrative organs, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has clearly required the establishment of a lifelong accountability system and a backtracking mechanism for major decisions. For serious mistakes in decision-making, decisions should be made in a timely manner according to law, but if the delay has caused major losses and adverse effects, the chief executive and other relevant personnel should be strictly investigated. However, even for the "illegal coal and power projects without verification, illegal approval, inconsistent approval documents, incomplete commencement procedures and other illegal coal and power projects", the "opinions" only requires "all work stoppages and production stoppages, and classify them according to the actual situation according to the laws and regulations", without clear accountability

the approval system and other planned economy management means will not be changed, and the relevant government departments will approve and eliminate them without constraints. The simple addition and subtraction method that causes huge national property losses is likely to continue. The unified planned economy has been broken, and market resources and market players are diversified, decentralized and uncertain. If we always rely on planned means to manage the industry, we will inevitably fall into a passive and lagging situation. Under the market economy system, government management departments should change to rely on the management mechanism of planning guidance and early warning guidance. During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" and "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, due to the fact that the state has not announced a clear development plan, the construction of coal-fired power has continued the pace of development during the period of power shortage. The average annual growth rate of the installed scale of coal-fired power is 12.4% and 6.6% respectively. Coupled with the rapid development of non fossil energy power generation during the "Twelfth Five Year Plan", it far exceeds the growth rate of power consumption. Such a serious disconnect, there is neither market intervention nor the most basic warning, and the government's management of the market is actually absent. Fortunately, with the release of the 13th five year plan for power development by the National Energy Administration in July 2016, this situation is being reversed. After 15 years, the competent department of power once again announced the five-year plan for power development. In July 2017, the late 2020 coal power planning and construction risk warning was finally issued

power generation enterprises are naturally to blame for the surplus of coal and electricity. The fundamental reason is the imbalance in the allocation of "power responsibility benefit" in the investment decision-making of state-owned power generation enterprises. At present, China's coal and power enterprises are basically state-owned enterprises, and the one-sided assessment mechanism of blindly expanding "incentives" is excessive, while the constraints on the classification and introduction of natural bio based high molecular materials are insufficient. In addition, there is a lack of supervision on the enterprise's decision-making and business behavior caused by a single shareholder structure. The development thinking of power generation enterprises has always been to focus on becoming large, light becoming strong, heavy spending, light making money, heavy investment, light management. To reverse the current situation of insufficient scientific market decision-making and risk prevention awareness, we must change the single shareholder structure of power generation enterprises, implement mixed ownership, and cultivate qualified market players. On this basis, we should desalinate the official standard thought of enterprise managers, cultivate entrepreneurs with market thinking and risk awareness, and make the behavior of enterprises and enterprises subject to not only party discipline and state law, but also market mechanism

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI